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ePaper created 2014-09-23, 08:46:06 | version 1.33.00
12 Issue Two 2014 Title nies can develop new business models. Demographic change Almost everywhere in the world, women are having fewer children and people are liv- ing longer. In future, the global population will shrink, forecasts Dr. Reiner Klingholz, Director of the Berlin Institute for Popula- tion and Development, and Germany’s best known demographics expert. “Germany’s population can also be expected to drop by about 10 million by the middle of the centu- ry.” These figures will have a wide-ranging influence on the economy and transport. Dr. Reiner Klingholz explains: “The growth that we know from the past will not continue in this way.” It is unclear what effect this will have on goods transport: On the one hand, the demand for goods will decline – and with it also the transport requirement of an aging and declining population. As a result, productivity and the prospects for economic growth will fall. However, Klingholz believes it is unclear what other factors will influence transport: “If the global division of labour increases, more groups will have to be trans- ported. Also, online commerce or a change in population density between urban and ru- ral areas, or the oil price, will influence this development.” In his book entitled “Slaves of growth” (published by Campus), the expert describes how growth will be decelerated. Indeed, economic growth rates have been falling in industrialised nations for decades. For one thing, this is because growth is easier to achieve at the start of development. Further- more, there are saturation effects in wealthy countries, and demographic change contrib- utes to a further slowdown. “Our entire state system, the economy, financing of pensions, financial markets and our principle of run- ning up debts are predicated on growth,” says Reiner Klingholz. This means our eco- nomic system will lose the basis of its ex- istence “slowly but surely”. “All sectors will have to undergo a change at some point, and will need to examine how they can live under these new conditions. Of course, this does not mean that nothing will be transported any longer. But it does mean that there will not be year-on-year growth.” There are al- ready companies who can function effec- tively without growth: Foundations, cooper- atives, artisan firms. Joint stock companies cannot do that, because their investors ex- pect growth. Risks Globalisation is one of the main in- fluencing factors on social and economic development. And not only does it offer many opportunities, it also harbours risks. The logistics expert Prof. Dr. Christian Kille regards one risk as being the signif- icant influence of local natural catastro- phes on value-added chains, for example: “If there was an earthquake somewhere 50 years ago, it was usually only of interestDr. Reiner Klingholz Photo:SabineSütterlin »Growth in the export sector involving transporting more and more goods over longer and longer distances, or increased demand for e-commerce is leading to greater expectations on logistics and transport services. Trade, especially with countries outside Europe such as the CIS countries or Turkey, will continue to grow.« Dietmar Böser, Director Sales Europe at BPW