trailer world Issue Two 2013

How will the future development of the European logistics markets look? Prof. Christian Kille demonstrates growth potential in the industry.

14 Issue Two 2013 Whenever globalisation is in discussion, the talk quickly switches to the emerging economy countries, especially the BRIC states as emerging markets and with it the driver of this de- velopment. Therefore, the conclusion is close at hand that these re- gions also offer the greatest growth potential for logistics compa- nies. But that’s not quite correct: not only have the goods streams been continuously changing for years but so have the borders of the growth regions. Soon, Africa and the Middle East could also be among them. At the moment, the emerging economy countries are the growth guarantee for the German economy and therefore, also for the lo- cal logistics firms, and this will continue to be so. That is proven by the enormous growth rates for transports to and from China: over the period of the last 20 years, they reached an impressive 500 per cent in export and 400 per cent in import (according to weight). The amount for export from Brazil at the same time increased by 300 per cent. But however impressive these numbers may look, the emerging economy countries still have a much smaller share in the goods streams than Europe. A total of 75 per cent of the exports from Germany goes into the EEC-states, for the import that is still a good 50 per cent. As the consumption has been stagnating in Germany and the Western European countries for approximately the last 15 years and the production performance is reducing even in terms of logistically relevant amounts, the goods streams are moving lit- tle by little. The demand within Europe only grows in the Eastern states, where the backlog in terms of consumption and prosperity is not yet covered. A further significant move of the goods streams resulted from the fact that textiles, which only a hundred years ago were distributed from the area of Krefeld into Germany, are now imported from China or Bangladesh. As a result, they arrive in seaports such as Hamburg, before they get transported to the end customers. Indeed one should not assume the immense amounts of goods that were forecast. But the demand for transport continues. The globalisation not only creates growth in the states with emerging Good outlook? A globalisation prognosis Growth potential for logistics firms is not only in emerging markets, which are currently pushing forward with globalisation: the markets are changing, bringing great opportunities in Europe. Globalisation creates further growth By Prof. Christian Kille, University of Applied Sciences Würzburg-Schweinfurt

trailer world Issue Two 2013

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